About Those McCrory Precincts That Went Foxx
Posted November 6th, 2009 at 9:23 AM by Jeff A. TaylorThe body of this Jim Morrill et al story was much more nuanced than the 30 McCrory precincts powered Foxx victory hed implied. The 30 city precincts that switched from red to blue absolutely do help explain how Anthony Foxx won. But when you put those flips in perspective, I think the bigger story remains low turnout in GOP precincts John Lassiter needed big vote totals out of in order to win.
First, consider the size of the precincts that flipped. Most were small, generating 500-600 votes total, with a couple in the 300 vote range. Second, Lassiter was competitive in all them often losing by a few dozen votes. He lost three precincts by a total of 27 votes. In the overall battle these flips were nagging flesh wounds, not mortal injuries.
Next consider turnout. Like we said the other day, Lassiter needed turnout to hit 30 percent in his core suburban precincts to win. And that kind of turnout in many precincts is absolutely what got him close to victory. In fact, of the 33 precincts with turnout higher than 30 percent, Lassiter won 32 of them, often by wide margins. Let me say that again. The only precinct Foxx carried with turnout above 30 percent was East Stonewall AME Zion with 36 percent.
Now let’s go back to Lassiter’s underperforming precincts. Charlotte Christian went Lassiter with 62 percent (408 R votes) but just 25 percent turnout. Living Saviour Lutheran, 68 percent (376 votes) on just 17 percent turnout. Providence High, 75 percent (509 votes) on 22 percent turnout. And some of the others we mentioned the other day: Providence Country Club, Hawk Ridge, Harrison United Methodist, Community House Middle, Calvary Church, McKee Road Elementary. All these and other big South Charlotte GOP precincts had turnout in the low 20s, a couple below 20 percent.
If you had to point to one thing that killed Lassiter on Election Day, I would start with those South Charlotte precincts that did not hit 30 percent.
Bonus Rain on Parade: Low turnout cuts another way. Anthony Foxx would be wise to consider that his supposed mandate to “rebuild” Charlotte comes from exactly 9.3 percent of registered voters.
November 6th, 2009 at 9:54 am
[...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by Jeff A. Taylor, Guy Peters. Guy Peters said: It's all about GOTV. And thus shall it ever be. RT @MeckDeck: About Those McCrory Precincts That Went Foxx http://bit.ly/mw7VJ [...]
November 6th, 2009 at 10:18 am
That should be the real headline:
9 out of 10 registered voters did NOT vote for Foxx.
November 6th, 2009 at 10:30 am
Gee, when do you think the Uptown paper will be writing that headline?
November 6th, 2009 at 8:52 pm
This past election exposed the complete and total failure of the Meck GOP leadership’s strategy.
That strategy includes being happy with not running candidates in Democratic districts and hoping turnout remains low in those districts because there’s no district competition.
That strategy includes running nice guys who refuse to directly point out waste and corruption in local government.
That strategy includes every Republican saying the Streetcar is a “good idea – just not at this time” – rather than calling a bad idea a bad idea.
That strategy includes running a candidate (Lassiter) who said in room after room of conservative voters that he couldn’t win if he ran as a “conservative”. (I heard him do this on more than one occasion.)
If things are to turn around for the party, the party’s leadership and strategy must change – period.
November 6th, 2009 at 9:01 pm
“when do you think the Uptown paper will be writing that headline?”
Maybe when it slumps to a Tues., Thurs., Sun., pub cycle?
November 6th, 2009 at 10:07 pm
[...] for Republican Pat McCrory in 2007 and Foxx in 2009. Meanwhile, Jeff Taylor at MeckDeck points to low turnout in some south Charlotte precincts as the “bigger story.” I’ve always believed that when you lose a close race (51.5 % to 48.5% [...]
November 8th, 2009 at 12:12 pm
rick, if nothing else, you’d think the local GOP establishment would try to do something other than that which Mary Newsom and Mike Collins advise.
And John Lassiter is too smart to keep insulting the intelligence of his supporters. No one was asking him to run as Marty Davis, just clearly and convincingly to the right of Anthony Foxx. He threw a couple head fakes to the right, enough to alarm the Taylor Battens of the world, but nothing any conservative voter could hang their hat on say, “Foxx might do this, John Lassiter never in a billion years.”