Comment and analysis on all things Charlotte

Panthers’ 09 Sked: Insane

Well, games at Dallas, Arizona, New England, and the Jints should give John Fox plenty of time to work on his resume. I thought it would be tough, but this is impossible. Oh, don’t forget the two playoff teams that visit in Philly and the Vikes.

Better still, the bye is front-loaded in the fourth week so that by late November a trip to the Jets should be a test of wills.

Actually, I do not doubt Fox-Hurney will be back no matter what they do this year. Which is why 4-12 would not at all be a surprise.

6 Responses to “Panthers’ 09 Sked: Insane”

  • Apr
    14
    2009

    Short version: We’re boned.

  • Apr
    15
    2009

    Jeff, you are using the wrong metric — win/loss record — to evaluate how good teams were last season. The NFL’s unbalanced schedule makes entire divisions look undeservedly good. Like the AFC East, which had eight games against the two road-kill divisions last year (AFC West and NFC West).

    While the Panther’s schedule is certainly tough, it’s far from insane. Using Football Outsider’s Total DVOA to rate teams based upon the 2008 regular season, only two of the Panther’s games are against teams that were in top quarter of the league last year (Philadelphia, Giants). There are lots of teams from 9 through 15 (10 total) and 4 games against teams from 18 through 24.

    So I’d say 7-9 or 8-8.

  • Apr
    15
    2009

    All I know is that there is no Detroit, KC, or Oakland on this sked, let alone all three. The worst non-division opponent — Buffalo — went 7-9. The non-division opponents are what matter and there is simply no road kill out there for the Panthers.

    Unless it is they who get run over.

    Right now I’d make the Panthers favorites in exactly two of their five non-div home games — Wash and Buff.

  • Apr
    15
    2009

    I like 6-10, unless they develop a passing attack besides the “I hope Smitty catches this flutterball!” play. Could easily be 0-3 into the bye.

  • Apr
    15
    2009

    toms, that is our BESTest play!

  • Apr
    15
    2009

    Jeff, in a word, no. I would agree that the Panthers don’t play what, based upon last year’s schedule, would figure to be bad teams, except perhaps Buffalo. They don’ play that many great teams either though. Based upon the best available stats I’ve found (think regression analysis here, comparing yards gained/allowed per play adjusting for opponent, down and distance etc.) They’re over at Football Outsiders (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff)

    Ranks, based upon the Football Outsiders analysis:
    Giants: 3
    Eagles: 1
    Cowboys: 15
    Redskins: 18
    Vikings: 14
    Cardinals: 20
    Dolphins: 10
    Patriots: 11
    Jets: 19
    Bills: 24

    Oh, and the Panthers ranked 6th last season per Football Outsiders.

    So essentially, two games against very, very good teams out-of-division with the rest out-of-division being, well, average. I’d have to rate the Panthers as a favorite at home against everyone they’re scheduled to play there except maybe Philly.

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