The Charlotte Curse… Not
Posted May 7th, 2008 at 2:36 AM by Michael LowreyThere exists this notion that being from Charlotte amounts to political death in statewide races. Maximum leader Hood dispels that theory:
…being from Charlotte is not a liability in Republican politics. Let me repeat just once more, in case a few folks way out east or west haven’t gotten the news yet: Charlotte politicians start out with an advantage, not a disadvantage, when it comes to winning statewide GOP primaries. Being on television and radio for years means that you’re well-known not just in Mecklenburg but in Iredell, Cabarrus, Union, Rowan, Catawba, Gaston, and other counties where lots of Republicans live. This helped Robert Pittenger cruise to an easy nomination for lieutenant governor. And in the most suspenseful race of the state election cycle, Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory turned back a last-minute Fred Smith surge to win the gubernatorial primary outright. He performed well outside of his base region, particularly in the Triad (he’s a Guilford native), but he blew past the 40 percent mark and clinched the nomination because he was from Charlotte and won massive majorities in those aforementioned counties.
There, just thought you should know.
May 7th, 2008 at 5:34 am
How does one become a poll watcher? Do we have an idea of which precincts are particularly egregious in vote manufacturing? I’m thinking of taking a vacation day in November now.
May 7th, 2008 at 5:56 am
Smith got crushed in far too many counties in the QC media market to have a chance of winning. McCrory got 75 of the vote in Stanly, a percentage he just about equaled in all the close-in counties. The Smith campaign felt invisible in the Charlotte area — turns out it was.
Heading due east, you have to go all the way to Harnett, Hoke, and Scotland before you find Smith country.
The other fun number — 600,000. That is the number of votes Richard Moore got, add that to the total number of GOP votes in the primary — 500K — there is the potential to top Perdue’s 845K. Incidentally, that’s a vote total only 50K behind Obama’s 897K — so much for the notion that people would only vote the prez battle and go home.
A split among Moore voters won’t do — Perdue still wins. McCrory has to find a way to pull moderates toward him, or get swamped in a Dem tide in November.
I think he has to run against Raleigh even harder and put Perdue on the defensive to have chance.
May 7th, 2008 at 7:01 am
Many independents picked the Democrat ballot in the primary to vote for Obama or Clinton. As a result they couldnt even vote for a republican down the ballot. So making assumptions based on the raw number of votes cash for Dems vs Reps is impossible at this point.
Many of those independents will be more available to Republicans in the general election.
May 7th, 2008 at 8:30 am
I understand your point, but if the independents crossed over to vote for Obama they didn’t have to vote in the Dem guv race — yet they most did. There were only 85K fewer votes cast. What they skipped was the senate race, with 250K fewer votes.
May 7th, 2008 at 8:31 am
Jay is right.
Many called into WBT radio last night. I was surprised at the number who said they voted for either Obama/Clinton and said they’d be voting for McCain in the general.
May 7th, 2008 at 8:44 am
Pat McCrory vs Beverly Perdue for Gov.
Robert Pittenger vs Walter Dalton for Lt. Gov.
I have to think that Robert Pittenger has a better than of winning statewide.
Reasons:
1) Beverly Perdue starts with the best name recognition statewide and she will likely raise and spend more in this race. This is also a democratic year and there will be huge black turnout for Obama in November. Pat McCrory might do better than expected among Democrats in Mecklenburg, but is that enough?
2) Robert Pittenger is running against a state senator (Dalton) from western North Carolina. Robert will likely overwhelm this race with financing. He won’t be outspent. Robert is 59 years old and this is his last chance to really step up to the big stage. He will put the resources into this race to win it.
May 7th, 2008 at 8:48 am
You’ll prolly need at least 2m. votes to win statewide in November, keep that in mind.
May 7th, 2008 at 9:01 am
Just for what it’s worth: I was speaking to my mother last night after the results were in… she is extremely well-connected to the political scene in Raleigh. (My grandfather was Speaker of the House here in the 1930s for a single term, and my mother has worked in the NC Legislature for many reps in the past.) It turns out that a lot of high-ranking Democrats, not to mention most Republicans, think that Beverly Perdue is “as dumb as dirt”. And some really high-ranking Democrats, like Marc Basnight, actually hate Perdue and won’t do much, if anything, to help her get elected governor.
That’s not to say that Perdue should be underestimated… she beat Moore, after all. But it bodes well for McCrory, especially if he can hammer her on the tough issues and force her to respond.
May 7th, 2008 at 9:28 am
Mike Munger, the Libertarian candidate for governor, will surely point out Pat’s philosophy of government: of the bling, for the bling, and by the bling. Unlike Pittenger, McCrory has a well-earned reputation as a big-government Republican, which leaves him vulnerable on the fiscal right. Given a choice between a big-government Republican and a big-government Democrat, will enough Republicans skip that line on the ballot to tip the balance? Same thing for McCain.
May 7th, 2008 at 2:43 pm
ClayJ– can we read into Mayor Pat’s challenge to have a lot of debates around the state as an indication of this notion that Bev may be a lightweight?
May 7th, 2008 at 2:53 pm
Haver, that would be my guess. From what I have been told, a lot of the Democrat power structure in this state wanted Richard Moore to beat Perdue in the primary because (1) they simply don’t like her and (2) they’re acutely aware that she does not come even close to matching up with McCrory in the brains department. Remember, she actively avoided participating in any debates leading up to the primary. The more McCrory can make her talk in public, the more aware people will be that she is not suited to be governor.
Bluntly speaking here (and when have you ever known me not to?), McCrory is probably better suited to beat Perdue than Fred Smith would have been. Like John McCain, McCrory’s centrist leanings will help him to poach some middle-of-the-road voters who might have voted Democrat if the other choice was the more conservative Smith.
Just remember that North Carolina has one of the weakest governor’s offices in the country. High-ranking Democrats like Marc Basnight aren’t going to lose too much sleep if failing to actively help Perdue results in McCrory getting elected.
May 7th, 2008 at 6:43 pm
Marc Basnight is likely more upset at the concept of State Sen Robert Pittenger having the gavel in the state senate. Pittenger has been a thorn in the side of the state Senate Democrats.
I bet Marc Basnight puts all of his efforts into helping Dalton win as Lt Gov.
May 8th, 2008 at 11:17 am
Despite her lack of intelligence, Perdue will win.
If I was running her campaign, I’d have her tour the state and avoid McCrory. Maybe 2 debates. Make sure she doesn’t puke on her shoes.
I’d also play the victim/female card every time McCrory goes negative in a debate/ad (it wiorked with Moore). Then I’d pound McCrory with crime in Charlotte. I’d ride Dems coattails (not TOO much Obama).
Finally I’d subtly put out the word everywhere around the state “We can’t let the great state of Mecklenburg control the Gov. and Lieutenant Gov. office, can we?”
Assuming no big hiccups, Pittenger wins and Perdue wins.
May 8th, 2008 at 11:33 am
“We can’t let the great state of Mecklenburg control the Gov. and Lieutenant Gov. office, can we?”
Yeah, because the eastern parts of the state have given us such stellar governors and lieutenant governors recently. [rolls eyes]
I saw TV snippets yesterday of McCrory talking and Perdue talking. He is clearly in a different league than Perdue and should absolutely destroy her in any debates they have.
May 8th, 2008 at 12:14 pm
Clay, you’re right.
Our state government has been a nightmare. Forget about weak leadership, the corruption has been a complete embarrassment.
Like most here, I’m no fan of mayor Pat. He’s a much better choice than Bev Perdue however.
May 8th, 2008 at 1:53 pm
Don’t forget Sherriff Andy Taylor loves Bev.
May 8th, 2008 at 2:43 pm
Now, I like Andy Griffith as much as anyone. And he was relevant… about 40 years ago.
But anyone who votes for Beverly Perdue just because Andy Griffith endorsed her needs to have their head examined. That is just as bad as when Tom Hanks or some other Hollywood celebrity endorses Obama or Clinton. People who vote based solely on what some damn celebrity says ought not be allowed to vote again; I’m absolutely sure it’s not what the framers intended when they were writing up that whole Constitution thing.