The Charlotte Observer’s Taylor Batten offers up an interesting analysis of the 2013 mayor’s race in Charlotte, drawing heavily from the results in 2009. The key point:
It was in the racially mixed precincts where [Anthony] Foxx won the election. In those 101 polling places, 59,000 votes were cast. Foxx won those precincts by more than 14,000 votes, overwhelming [John] Lassiter about 62 percent to 38 percent.
This is where the opportunity for [Edwin] Peacock lies. If he does as well (and as poorly) in heavily white and heavily black precincts as Lassiter did (and there’s no reason to think he won’t), he would need 40.5 percent of the vote in the “mixed” precincts, or just 2.5 percentage points more than Lassiter got there. Entirely possible.
It all suggests that Peacock needs to maintain his image as a moderate while not alienating his Republican base. And he could use a misstep or two from [Patrick] Cannon as well.
If that all happens and Peacock still loses? Then we write the Charlotte Republicans’ obituary.