Comment and analysis on all things Charlotte

The key election issue

In 150 words or less: How accurate are the polls? If you look at the survey data, it’s pretty clear that Barack Obama will be reelected as he’s ahead in most of the key battleground states. Republicans argue that the polls overstate how many people will vote for Democrats, as traditional Democratic groups simply will not turn out at the same level as they did in 2008. The GOP claim is not a yes/no proposition though — supposing the polls are off, the question then becomes by how much. If they’re wrong enough so it cuts Obama’s lead by two percentage points in key states, then Obama very likely still wins. If it’s more like four percentage points, then Romeny wins. And if it’s around three percentage points, then we won’t know the outcome until the rooster down the street from me starts crowing tomorrow morning. At best.

3 Responses to “The key election issue”

  • Nov
    06
    2012

    The polls and the media are over-playing Obama’s chances here. Just like Carter’s in 1980. Probably worse.

    But when the dust settles, they’ll also be the ones saying “No one who knows better ever thought it would be close”.

    I wonder if they’ll start prognosticating about the demise of the Democrat party though (like they did in 2008 about the Republican party). Ha!

  • Nov
    06
    2012

    I expect the ticket of Goldman Sachs and Grim Reaper to be re-elected.

  • Nov
    07
    2012

    WOW – I was WAAAAYYYYYY wrong.

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