In 150 words or less: How accurate are the polls? If you look at the survey data, it’s pretty clear that Barack Obama will be reelected as he’s ahead in most of the key battleground states. Republicans argue that the polls overstate how many people will vote for Democrats, as traditional Democratic groups simply will not turn out at the same level as they did in 2008. The GOP claim is not a yes/no proposition though — supposing the polls are off, the question then becomes by how much. If they’re wrong enough so it cuts Obama’s lead by two percentage points in key states, then Obama very likely still wins. If it’s more like four percentage points, then Romeny wins. And if it’s around three percentage points, then we won’t know the outcome until the rooster down the street from me starts crowing tomorrow morning. At best.