Comment and analysis on all things Charlotte

The Final (And Most Important) Presidential Battleground: North Carolina

This American Spectator piece is dead on. Few people fully realize how pivotal North Carolina is to President Obama’s reelection. North Carolina will likely be the most pivotal battleground state in the nation this year, or one among just three.

Check out the map of the 2004 election below. If Obama wins all the states Kerry won in 2004, which as you can see is almost guaranteed to happen given how liberal they are, all he needs to get to 269 electoral votes is North Carolina and Virginia or North Carolina and Colorado.

Obama just needs to win the blue states Kerry won in 2004 plus two more to get to 269.

… the final battleground is likely to be North Carolina, Virginia, and Colorado. Democrats figured this out long ago. That’s why they’re holding their convention in Charlotte,” the Spectator article says.

Who in North Carolina will decide which way the country goes and whether Obama is shown the exit?

“The more than 45,000 highly educated employees that make an average salary of $75,000 …” and work in Research Triangle Park. And of course, their counterparts in Charlotte.

Not said in the article is this. The reason that just 45,000 voters in the Triangle now have such power is because of the roughly 100,000 new black voters the Charlotte area picked up over the last decade. These solidly Democratic voters turned the state from red in presidential elections to purple and set it up to tilt. Now it is young professionals who will decide the balance.

The article is dead on about this:

These newly successful people have become the pivotal bloc that swings the state between Republicans and Democrats. They are not committed to either party. They are not terribly involved with social issues. Their main worry is the economy. If Republicans make birth control and separation of church and state the major issue, they will go Democratic. If the Democrats mess up the economy and produce $4.50 gas and 8.3 percent unemployment, they will swing Republican. That will probably decide the 2012 election.

And who is the man the Spectator, a hard right publication, says Republicans should send to fight the fight? That would be Mitt Romney, hands down says the Spectator, an interesting point of view, again, for a hard right publication.

So the question for November will be this: “Who can reach out to these educated, upscale people who are going to be the deciding votes in the few state that are going to decide the election?”The answer for Republicans is very clear. Mitt Romney’smain appeal is to these upscale voters. In every primary, he has run best in urban and suburban areas. He appeals to people with a college education, he appeals to women, he appeals to the more affluent. These voters are not scared by his Mormonism but they are put off by social issues and are worried about the economy. Romney scores well on all counts.

Now all you’ve got to do is watch NC polls to figure out which way this thing will go …

5 Responses to “The Final (And Most Important) Presidential Battleground: North Carolina”

  • Mar

    To suggest that the Spectator is “hard right” is dubious at best. It seems to me that it is a neo-conservative publication dedicated to perpetual war–that is if those wars benefit Israel–and to a large national government. Therefore, it would only be logical for it to support Romney, an establishment Republican dedicated to the status quo. Want “hard right,” then go to

  • Mar

    It is not the time to watch.

    The first line you draw is your front door.

    The next line you draw is your immediate neighbors.

    You push from there. Watching is not doing. And there is a lot of doing that needs to be done.

  • Mar

    Congrats on Rush using your post on his show today!

  • Mar

    Heard your name on Rush’s show today. Have been missing hearing you on the radio.
    My husband believes Obama will again no matter who Republicans nominate. I disagree. I believe if Romney wins, then Obama will have a good chance to win. Every time Republicans nominate a moderate they lose. We know that the dems will manipulate issues in their favor. They have the whole MSM in their corner. Many are simply uninformed and believe what they see on TV or hear from others. As a Charlottean I will not be voting for Obama. I can guarantee that. Nor will my husband who happens to be black. To win Obama is going to have to gin-up enthusiasm in his base by depicting Republicans as sexist, racist homophobes.

  • Mar

    I have long known that NC would be key in this year’s Presidential election. A well known North Carolina businessman has done his part to help Obama win our 15 votes again.
    Shortly after I proudly joined the staff at FM Talk 101.1 WZTK on its first day on the air, I was surprised to hear that company owner Don Curtis was liberal, as the station’s premiere programs of Boortz and Savage are undeniably conservative.
    Now, eight years later, WZTK has been taken off of the air and replaced with a hip hop, pop, rap format, which boasts of playing fewer commercials. I’d imagine that is so, as I imagine that they can’t sell many. As a daily listener to WZTK, I know that that station never missed a legally allowable commercial break, and that none of those breaks had to be filled with unpaid promos or PSA’s.
    The stated reason for taking WZTK off of the air is that they could longer sustain the station because of low revenues. I don’t believe for a moment that Curtis Media Group was losing money airing Boortz, Clark Howard and even Dr. Savage. I can imagine that they might have been going in the hole with their local origination programs of Brad and Britt in the morning and Alan Handleman in the afternoon. In the beginning, Krantz did offer at least some common sense conservatism to balance Whitmire’s life long liberalism. I told Brad early on that he needed to convert Britt, but it went the other direction, with Krantz turning into as much of an Obamabot as Whitmire. New competition in the market was cited as a reason for dropping the format. I can well imagine that KC and Carmen on Rush Radio in the Triangle and Triad did take a number of Brad and Britt listeners away, as Air America proved that people don’t listen to liberal radio. Though Alan’s afternoon shows were largely apolitical, when politics was the subject, Handleman was always and obviously a good time rock and roller leftist.
    He can say what he wants about lost revenues and poor profitability, but I KNOW that Don Curtis did what he did primarily to take the vehemently anti-Obama Boortz and Savage away from much of their regular audience in the top 50 markets of the Triangle and Triad. CMG will tell you that they still air Boortz, but here in the Triad, two-thirds of his show is buried on a cruddy litle, no signal AM station at 10 pm, twelve hours after he’s live on the air. They might as well have kept their live 10 pm broadcast of uber liberal Alan Colmes. I do understand that they do broadcast him live on their cruddy little AM station in the Triangle.
    My only question is, “Don, how much money or what ambassadorship did Obama offer you?”

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