By the numbers, I’d argue that Foxx’s odds are actually better than the other Charlotte mayor who wants that position, Pat McCrory.
It has nothing to do with who Foxx is or who McCrory is. It’s all about numbers.
44% – The first, most important number. That’s roughly the percentage of registered Democrats in the state who are black. With Foxx, who is black, in the Democratic primary, unaffiliated black voters will also likely cross over to vote. If Foxx is the only black guy in the field, on the back of the envelope, he has a good shot at winning the primary if two or three white Democrats get in and split the vote, which they surely will.
With Foxx and another highly qualified, serious black candidate in a crowded primary field, there are still enough black votes to really boost a major metropolitan black candidate.
31.4% – This is now essentially a Democrat state. It’s not deep blue, but rather a purpley blue, but definitely blue. It is common knowledge in the campaign world that GOP registration in a state or district has to be at 35 percent for the GOP to have a serious chance at winning. It’s at 31.4 percent. Unaffiliated registration is 24.5 percent. Democrat registration is 43.8 percent. To win, McCrory or another Republican must turn out the GOP, not too hard in an presidential year, and capture almost all of the the unaffiliated vote, not an easy thing to do.
McCrory was polling at around 50 percent of the vote against current Gov. Bev Perdue, who was in the low 40s. But that likely has more to do with Perdue’s unpopularity — she’s the least liked governor in the nation — than McCrory’s popularity. After all, McCrory lost his hometown of Charlotte by a hair to Perdue in 2008. He hasn’t done much to change that since then but stand by as she became more and more unpopular.
McCrory, or any other Republican, could really struggle against someone who doesn’t start the race with high, built-in negatives like Perdue had.
Personalities, campaign strategies and uncontrollable outside factors like presidential year coat tails will color this race and anything could happen. But back of the envelope, this is where the GOP is starting. Perdue’s announcement that she won’t run again was a huge blow to the state GOP — and to McCrory.
27
2012 At 10:46 am, kel Said:
If people are going to vote for A-Foxx just because he is black I guess conservatives and republicans should just cede the field to A-Foxx and not bother with an election there is no way for a republican to win. In fact maybe Botox Bev should resign immediately and name A-Foxx as her replacement. He is also a favorite of Obummer so this is a done deal. I mean he has done such a great job as Mayor of Charlotte, right? Why waste the time and money with an election. We are all screwed. If you are conservative and/or republican your only hope is to get the hell out of NC ASAP.
27
2012 At 2:35 pm, CapnKirtz Said:
We would have liked to stay in NC having lived in Charlotte for 14 years, but with more regressives moving into the state, SC came out place of choice. Even our son moved out of Charlotte and joined us in SC. All in all this nations is moving much more quickly into decay. We will go the way of the Roman Empire.
29
2012 At 9:00 pm, Danimal Said:
Don’t let the door hit ya on the way out, fellas.
29
2012 At 11:45 pm, kel Said:
At 9:00 pm, Danimal Said:
Don’t let the door hit ya on the way out, fellas.
Then you stay here in Detroit-on-the-Catawba and pay higher taxes and fees. Then again you could be on of the folks who live off the taxpayers so you don’t care and want to elect politicians to give you more goodies at taxpayer expense.
30
2012 At 7:12 am, bruce Said:
As Tara would say…”tipping point”… Charlotte has now reached the point of never being a good place to raise a family unless private schools are in the mix.
The powers that be have redefined what is good and bad, and the result is everything from a screwed up school system to liars in charge telling us that crime is way down.
I would move in a minute if money were not a issue.