Looking at the new, new congressional districts, there seems to be too much focus on the fact that four Democratic incumbents get double-bunked. Interesting, to be sure, but I think the bigger story is just how much change that means for CD lines east of Charlotte. Bigger because 2012 will be a massive turnout year in North Carolina. So massive I think that the value of incumbency will shrink. Not disappear, but shrink.
In other words, it may look like Dems would be weakened by primaries, but I think so long as there is a competent name on the November ballot, they’ll be competitive in almost all the new districts. We already know that Pat McCrory will be running a narrowly-focused, coattail-less anti-Bev campaign. So no strategic or thematic help there for GOP candidates.
It truly will be the Anointed One vs. the unwashed Red State heathen. The Dems could do worse.
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