Looking at the new, new congressional districts, there seems to be too much focus on the fact that four Democratic incumbents get double-bunked. Interesting, to be sure, but I think the bigger story is just how much change that means for CD lines east of Charlotte. Bigger because 2012 will be a massive turnout year in North Carolina. So massive I think that the value of incumbency will shrink. Not disappear, but shrink.
In other words, it may look like Dems would be weakened by primaries, but I think so long as there is a competent name on the November ballot, they’ll be competitive in almost all the new districts. We already know that Pat McCrory will be running a narrowly-focused, coattail-less anti-Bev campaign. So no strategic or thematic help there for GOP candidates.
It truly will be the Anointed One vs. the unwashed Red State heathen. The Dems could do worse.Read full article » 7 Comments »