Flashing yellow light. There is a reason to somewhat worried here. Why, you ask? Simple, the defense budget proposals released yesterday include significant transport plane cuts and flying transport planes is what the Charlotte-based N.C. Air National Guard does. Specifically, the Pentagon is planing on:
• Retiring 27 aging C-5As, resulting in a fleet of modernized 52 C-5Ms and 222 C-17s
• Retiring 65 of the oldest C-130s, resulting in a fleet of 318 C-130s
• Divesting 38 C-27s
And some quotes:
…[W]e are making only marginal reductions in the Army reserve and Army National Guard and no reductions to the Marine Corps Reserve… the Air Force is balancing the size of its reserve and active components, including aircraft and manpower reductions, and adjusting the alignment of missions and installations to sustain the operational Reserve Component for the long term. The Air Force will augment the readiness of their reserves by increasing Active-Reserve Component associations.
Translation: some Air National Guard and Air Force Reserve flying units will be shutting down.
Now let’s look closer. Charlotte is, of course, a C-130 Hercules base. The Air Force proper currently operates about a third of all C-130s in use, with the rest flown by the Air National Guard and Air Force Reserve. The typical ANG and AFR C-130 unit has between six and 10 aircraft, with most being at six to eight rather than 10. (The N.C. ANG is on the high side.) So it’s quite easy to image six or eight ANG/AFR C-130 bases being eliminated if unit sizes don’t grow. And in the last base closing round, the Air Force wanted to increase unit size to, in most cases, 12 aircraft, which would have resulted in far fewer ANG and AFR C-130 units. (The base closing commission (BRAC) did not go along.)
There’s some good news though: CLT rated very well in the methodology used to rank AF/ANG/AFR facilities during the last (2005) BRAC round. In fact, for the airlift mission, Charlotte/Douglas International Airport ranked 33rd of all Air Force bases, active duty or reserve component. The only base with a National Guard C-130 unit to rank higher was Little Rock, but that’s also an active-duty Air Force base.
Two important qualifiers: There’s no guarantee that a future BRAC round would use the same measurement to determine a base’s military value, so we might not look quite as good in the future.
And there’s a truth that doesn’t go away: CLT is the second-best C-130 base in North Carolina, behind what is now Pope Army Airfield, which is right next to Ft. Bragg. It’s very, very hard to imagine there not being C-130s at Pope. If the Pentagon cuts enough transport planes, and Charlotte looks a bit more average, the N.C. Air National Guard might simply shift over to Fayetteville.
Now how likely is this? Unlikely, certainly. Impossible? No. Unprecedented? No. The Virginia ANG, which used to have its own F-16s and be based in Richmond, shifted over to Langley AFB a few years back and now provides extra pilots for the active-duty assigned F-22s based there.
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By the numbers, I’d argue that Foxx’s odds are actually better than the other Charlotte mayor who wants that position, Pat McCrory.
It has nothing to do with who Foxx is or who McCrory is. It’s all about numbers.
44% – The first, most important number. That’s roughly the percentage of registered Democrats in the state who are black. With Foxx, who is black, in the Democratic primary, unaffiliated black voters will also likely cross over to vote. If Foxx is the only black guy in the field, on the back of the envelope, he has a good shot at winning the primary if two or three white Democrats get in and split the vote, which they surely will.
With Foxx and another highly qualified, serious black candidate in a crowded primary field, there are still enough black votes to really boost a major metropolitan black candidate.
31.4% – This is now essentially a Democrat state. It’s not deep blue, but rather a purpley blue, but definitely blue. It is common knowledge in the campaign world that GOP registration in a state or district has to be at 35 percent for the GOP to have a serious chance at winning. It’s at 31.4 percent. Unaffiliated registration is 24.5 percent. Democrat registration is 43.8 percent. To win, McCrory or another Republican must turn out the GOP, not too hard in an presidential year, and capture almost all of the the unaffiliated vote, not an easy thing to do.
McCrory was polling at around 50 percent of the vote against current Gov. Bev Perdue, who was in the low 40s. But that likely has more to do with Perdue’s unpopularity — she’s the least liked governor in the nation — than McCrory’s popularity. After all, McCrory lost his hometown of Charlotte by a hair to Perdue in 2008. He hasn’t done much to change that since then but stand by as she became more and more unpopular.
McCrory, or any other Republican, could really struggle against someone who doesn’t start the race with high, built-in negatives like Perdue had.
Personalities, campaign strategies and uncontrollable outside factors like presidential year coat tails will color this race and anything could happen. But back of the envelope, this is where the GOP is starting. Perdue’s announcement that she won’t run again was a huge blow to the state GOP — and to McCrory.
2 CommentsGoing out on a limb here, but Foxx statement reported in three tweets by Brad Broders @news14Broders seems to suggest he is considering it.
Mayor Foxx: “(Perdue’s) decision not to run for re-election came as a surprise. I remain focused on Charlotte and substantial work ahead …
Mayor Foxx statement: “I will spend the coming weeks talking with my family and friends about how I could best serve our city and state….
This week, the entire nation was introduced to Governor Bev Perdue’s pet monster, the vicious killer she’s protecting by blocking the door to the execution chamber for killers just like him.
Governor Perdue's pet monster, Danny Hembree.
By now you’ve probably seen death row inmate Danny Hembree Jr.’s mug jeering at you on national TV, as he laughs at the North Carolina death penalty system. People around the country are watching aghast as Hembree mocks the inability of the state justice system to carry out his death sentence. In a letter to the Gaston Gazette, he wrote this:
Is the public aware that the chances of my lawful murder taking place in the next 20 years if ever are very slim?” Hembree asked. “Is the public aware that I am a gentleman of leisure, watching color TV in the a/c, reading, taking naps at will, eating three well-balanced meals a day?” … Kill me if you can, suckers. Ha! Ha! Ha!”
What hasn’t clearly been explained to people is that it is mainly our governor’s veto of the overhaul of the Racial Justice Act that will keep this man alive long after he exhausts his traditional appeals and the state resolves its other issues surrounding the death penalty, which have resulted in a temporary moratorium.
As usual, the media largely missed the big story here — namely that it is now essentially impossible to kill Hembree in North Carolina because he murdered a teenager who happened to be white. Thanks to North Carolina’s obscene Racial Justice Act, passed in 2009, killing a white woman has essentially become an act exempt from the death penalty. Why? Because you are more likely to get the death penalty if you kill a white woman than a minority in this state, studies show. Therefore, carrying out the execution would be discriminatory and thus illegal under the RJA.
That Hembree is also white won’t matter. That Hembree is guilty as sin won’t either. Under the RJA, if you can prove statistically that your race or the race of your victim made it more likely that you would get the death penalty, you can get your death sentence reduced to life in prison.
Gaston County District Attorney Locke Bell told the Los Angeles Times that thanks to the Racial Justice Act, Hembree could also use statistics to get out the death penalty and have his death sentence reduced to life in prison in a myriad of other ways:
“Hembree, who is white, could point out that seven of eight death row inmates from Gaston County are white, Bell said. “Statistically, he could argue that Gaston County discriminates against white defendants,” Bell said.
And off death row he goes, just like that, even if he is guilty as sin. It is a sick system that devalues the lives of murder victims, placing more emphasis on the color of their skin and that of their killers than in protecting the public or punishing the guilty.
It’s clear that Hembree, who was sentenced to death two months ago in Gaston County, intends to use the Racial Justice Act to stay alive. He has already begun building a record of racial prejudice against him, parts of the Gazette article show.
Hembree, who could possibly turn out to be a serial killer, is now attempting to involve the NAACP in two other murder cases he is accused in, those of Randi Dean Saldana, who was white, and Deborah Ratchford, was black.
Along with the suggested editorial, Hembree sent a copy of a three-page letter that he said he intends to send to the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People.
In the NAACP letter, Hembree tells of his conviction and pending murder charges. Hembree suggests that the NAACP get involved because the cases of the two white women are being tried first.
Catterton and Saldana were each killed in 2009. Ratchford’s body was found in a Gastonia cemetery in 1992.
In his letter, Hembree says that Gaston County District Attorney Locke Bell has no intention of taking the Ratchford case to court. Hembree suggests in his letter that Bell’s intent is racially motivated.
“I implore your great organization to pressure Mr. Bell until he gives Debora Ratchford her day in court in the interest of justice,” he wrote.
Using the RJA to tie up the courts is a strategy so effective that will likely work to keep Hembree and most of the other killers on the state’s death row alive long after the exhaust their other appeals if it remains in place. In fact, the Racial Justice Act is now so popular, most death row inmates are using it.
Charlotte School of Law Professor Cindy Adcock said it could be ten years, if not longer, before Hembree is up for execution. She said some inmates in North Carolina have been on death row for decades.
“Most of the cases, most of the inmates on death row are being litigated around the racial justice act,” said Adcock. “That will have to be resolved before any case goes forward towards execution.”
Meanwhile, the families of the victims are left to deal with the agony this has caused.
Gaston County District Attorney Locke Bell said that he has received two distraught phone calls from Catterton’s father today.
“I got a call from the father of the 17-year-old that he murdered, in tears. He said that this is tearing the family to shreds. This is ripping the wound open,” Locke told ABCNews.com. “[The father] said, ‘He murdered our daughter, got the death penalty and now he’s just sitting in jail laughing at us.’”
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Who will the Charlotte-Mecklenburg Police Department target at the DNC? Just the “troublemakers, the agitators … Those that are looking to do more than just voice their opinions.”
So says the chief of police, Rodney Monroe. But as long as they aren’t camping out, they have nothing to worry about.
That’s because they won’t be there if the Charlotte plan survives legal scrutiny. The ordinance is geared toward just allowing one or two “groups” to show up. But these protesters don’t usually travel — much less apply for permits — as organized groups. And even if a group got one, they’d have to come up with the money up front to cover the potential costs of police for the protest as part of the permit process. I’m sure that will be a hunky chunk of change.
The security at the convention, by the way, is supposed to be both historic, and trend setting for the future.
1 CommentNorth Carolina just made an elite list of states with the worst budget management in the country, alongside some perennial disaster case states.
Wall Street 24/7 has named North Carolina to its list of the 10 States With the Most Trouble Paying Their Bills. On the list with North Carolina are Nevada, Washington, Illinois, Connecticut, Vermont, Maine, New Jersey and Arizona.
To the authors of the piece, North Carolina’s numbers — especially the 30.6 percent budget shortfall as a percent of the general fund — are clearly puzzling because the state has not suffered the economic hardships several others on the list have.
Compared to most states, North Carolina actually fared relatively well during the worst years of the recession. GDP and home values increased substantially, while median income and poverty rates did not worsen by much. Despite this, the state has had high budget gaps for each of the past three years.
What makes this even more puzzling is a recent tax study by the Chief Financial Officer of the Government of the District of Columbia that showed that Charlotteans paid some of the highest state income taxes and combined local and state sales taxes in the nation.
The question essentially raised by Wall Street 24/7 is a good one. Where the heck is all the money going? Why do we have these problems when it doesn’t appear that we should?
What’s even crazier is that our governor wants to raise state taxes to add/keep positions paid for by stimulus money that is going away, but not enough to actually debate the GOP in public on the issue.
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Yup, it’s that time of year again, where we see how things are going for US Airways flights to the mountain and Pacific time zones. The basics: the airline has for many years flown nonstop year-round from Charlotte to seven destinations out west: Denver, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Phoenix, San Diego, San Francisco, and Seattle. US Airways and Delta Air Lines are both starting daily flight to Salt Lake City in March with Delta essentially trying to force US Airways off the route as Delta is quite content with the status quo of no nonstops.
Which brings us to Portland, Oregon (PDX) and Sacramento, California (SMF), the cities referenced in the title of this post. US Airways has offered summer seasonal service to these cities for the past several years (Portland since 2007, Sacramento since 2008). If we are going to see more service to the western U.S., the existing service has to do well. And I can say that things are looking good this year:
• Portland: Like last year, the nonstops to PDX began the earliest they ever had, with daily flights from May 2. This year daily flights again begin on May 2nd. However, from April 18 through May 1, US Airways will operate the route four days a week (all but Monday, Tuesdays, and Saturdays), so that is progress.
• Sacramento: This is a smaller market that Portland, so the season is shorter. Last year, it began on June 2. This year, service start on May 3 and the flight goes daily on May 24. So again, this is a positive development.
So what next? Ordinarily, I’d put up a big chart showing the amount of money that people spend flying between various cities and Charlotte. Unfortunately, the federal data I use now combines the various Los Angeles (LAX, SNA, ONT, BUR, LGB) as one. Same for the three San Francisco bay area airports (SFO, SJC, OAK). Here’s a link to last’s year’s chart. Suffice it to say though, that the next largest market remains Orange County (SNA), but it both has a short runway and is slot restricted (NIMBYs), making service unlikely. Beyond that, it’s a big drop to Ontario and San Jose. Albuquerque and Tuscon are also possibilities, but again, while the trend is definitely in the right direct, we’re not there yet.
No CommentsFinds an additional $1 billion to $3 billion in annual savings on top the previously promised $5 billion. According to Bloomberg:
The lender, which already targeted $5 billion in expense cuts from retail and back-office operations, may reach total savings of $6 billion to $8 billion a year, Moynihan said during a Jan. 19 employee meeting. The latest phase of his effort examines investment and commercial banking, trading, and wealth-management units and is scheduled to be completed in April.
Not good news for the Charlotte economy.
2 CommentsIt’s a long shot, but it could happen if the wrong judge gets a hold of this case.
At a minimum, some sort of action resulting in a new trial for convicted cop killer Demetrius Montgomery wouldn’t be the least bit surprising.
Demetrius Montgomery
The handling of District Attorney Peter Gilchrist’s office’s last big case will now be tested in Montgomery’s appeal of his life sentence for killing two cops. So will the competency of our local court system.
Judge Forrest Bridges did a masterful job trying to appeal-proof the problems with the case the best he could, but several things could cause real problems down the line:
Attorney Andrew Desimone, who is working Montgomery’s appeal, points to 16 proposed issues. Several of the issues surround Montgomery’s mental status – the defense tried on several occasions to declare him incompetent to stand trial but the judge denied that motion – and other issues surround the difficulty of defending a suspect who won’t speak to his attorneys.
Montgomery is also appealing his conviction based on certain testimony during the trial. The record lists several witnesses, including the officers’ widows, Jennifer Shelton and Sherry Clark.
Montgomery also tried to fire his attorneys on several occasions, but wasn’t allowed to, another complicating factor ripe for appeal. Whatever the case, it will be interesting to see if the way the trial was handled holds up under scrutiny — and not very surprising if it doesn’t.
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So says Bloomberg. Note if US Airways decides to proceed, the formal bid may not come until late this year.
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